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Vladimir Putin’s Conscripts Won’t Win His War, But May Make It Longer – Times of India


President of Russia Vladimir Putinmove to recruit 300,000 reservists to strengthen his army in Ukraine Rather than affecting the outcome of the war, it is likely to prolong the war.
Nonetheless, a broader set of measures aimed at undermining foreign military and financial support for the Kyiv war effort, including exacerbating the European energy crisis and threatening nuclear strikes on unspecified targets. It can buy you time to execute your strategy.
Everything about Putin’s decision to order partial mobilization is surrounded by questions, including the feasibility of the numbers themselves. Other unknowns include the speed, quality, and goals of the large-scale training exercise you are about to launch.
But the basic math is that a phased recruiting program is aimed at rebuilding capabilities and rotating depleted combat units rather than providing new forces that could put Ukraine back on the defensive. will prove to be, say military analysts from Washington to Moscow.
Kyiv’s allies estimate that Russia not only suffered about 80,000 casualties in Ukraine, but many troops are spending eight months on the battlefield because they lack the manpower needed to rotate. .
Igor Levchenko, head of strategic modeling at Kyiv-based think tank New Geopolitics, said: “I don’t know if this amounts to escalation, but it will certainly take time for Ukraine to win. And that may be important.
One of Russia’s few strategic successes was delaying the delivery of each weapon system, from the Javelin anti-tank missile to the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, by threatening escalation, deterring the U.S. and other allies from entering Ukraine. delaying the supply of weapons. Levchenko said he fears the transfer will provoke a Russian reaction.
According to Levchenko, Ukraine could be armed with long-range ATACMS rockets, which the United States is hesitant to supply, along with aircraft and Abrams tanks, to regain lost territory in a matter of weeks. Withheld as a direct result of the strategic thinking of politicians and the military,” he said, adding that Putin’s recent nuclear threat risks exacerbating Washington’s hesitation. It’s a very bad story.”
The United States continues to focus on open and clear discussions with Ukraine and other allies regarding its needs, including longer-term weapons requirements. pentagon Spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder“I don’t think these conversations have been affected by this situation,” he said, citing recent measures by Russia, including fake ballots that began on Friday in territories it holds in Ukraine for annexation. mentioned.
Responding to a question about whether the United States could send Abrams tanks, he added that the United States “will consider various capabilities going forward.”
A European official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there has been no change in positions so far between Ukrainian allies and their support for Kyiv’s counterattack.
Military analysts and officials outside Ukraine also expressed skepticism about the ability of Russia’s partial mobilization to change the trajectory of the war on the ground.
Russian military planners will face a dilemma between putting very low-quality troops procured from conscription into the field or spending time training higher-quality forces, Western officials say. said in the briefing. They also predicted that the new units would be poorly equipped.
“300,000 additional troops is not enough for Russia to advance in Ukraine,” he said. Pavel Zolotarev, a former Russian general who is now an analyst at the Institute of the United States and Canada in Moscow. “This is just enough to stop the Ukrainian offensive and consolidate control of the territory now controlled by Russian forces.”
Partial mobilization is “unlikely to produce effective soldiers” or block chances of regaining Ukrainian territory over the winter, says US think tank tracking conflict in daily report The Institute for War Studies concluded in its most recent assessment.
Ukrainian offensives continue to advance, but have slowed since a successful runaway earlier this month in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
Former U.S. Army Europe Commander Mark Hartling pointed out serious weaknesses in Russia’s limited capabilities and basic training methods that he saw during a visit to the Russian military.
“It was awful,” Hartling wrote in a Twitter thread. … terrifying leadership by “Drill Sergeant”. ”
Michael Coffman, a Russian military expert at the CNA security think tank in Washington, said on a podcast that the 300,000 target was likely “a hypothetical one.” According to him, Russian commanders will have largely limited options in deciding what to do with the new conscripts.
One is recruiting Russian combat tactical groups in Ukraine, many of which are manning 40% to 50% of their intended force, Kofman said. But most Russian training takes place within the unit, taking scarce and exhausted officers to do the job.
Another method is to simply build a large, lightly armed motorized unit to hold the line in a defensive position. The third is to create a competent army that can rotate depleted troops along the front line, but it takes a lot of time and investment to bring it up to the required level.
“What this means is that Russia can try to stem the deteriorating military situation and deal with the quantity aspect of the military,” he said. “But they’ve already run out of the best equipment, the best officers, and the best ammunition, so the quality cannot be fixed and morale problems will be permanent.”





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