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Homebuilding will fall short of its 2023 target by 30%

The Economics Institute for Construction (EIB) predicts that Dutch construction firms will deliver almost a tenth as many homes this year and next year as they did in 2022. This is terrible news for housing minister Hugo de Jonge’s plans to build 100,000 new homes each year to solve the housing shortage. This year and next, the EIB expects about 70,000 new homes to be built each year.

Rising costs of building materials and rising interest rates are putting the brakes on construction, according to an independent research agency.

According to the EIB’s baseline estimates, total construction output, including renovations and road construction, is expected to fall by 1.5% this year and by a further 2% in 2024. Not only the number of newly built houses, but also the number of completed utility buildings decreased sharply. These are buildings not used for living space, such as schools, offices, factories, and shops.

EIB researchers talk about “tipping points”, mostly related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has led to soaring prices for fuel and building materials such as wood and steel. Uncertainty has also led to higher interest rates. More expensive loans also make real estate investments less attractive. Renovation and repair of homes and buildings will remain the only growth market in the next few years as more money is spent on sustainability.

Previously, the National Association of Realtors NVM and Real Estate Advisors CBRE and others have pointed to additional effects from falling home prices. Investors are likely to have less money to invest in new construction if home prices fall and construction companies’ costs rise, they warn.

Construction increased last year thanks to the issuance of additional building permits a year earlier. However, according to the EIB, the increase was much smaller than expected. Partly because of the lack of suitable sites for construction, and because there are too few city officials to process all permit applications, local governments issue permits for construction projects less frequently. It was less. court in November exemption ended It automatically gave construction projects permission to emit nitrogen, further delaying construction.

put one’s shoulders on the wheel to stop the decline in construction

“If we all get behind the wheel, new construction doesn’t have to go down,” said Martin van Rijn, chairman of the umbrella organization of housing firm Aedes. ready to grow. “If you have an affordable building site and the right location, you can get started.”

“Location is often the bottleneck and it has to do with the price of land. This is a housing crisis, it is urgent and construction sites cannot go unused. “As far as I’m concerned, ministers can also have more control over it. Sometimes things happen just because they need to. Those who don’t want to build now take their turn.” Housing companies are keen on those places, and we shouldn’t allow all the people struggling to find a home to be left in a can.”

The housing association has previously agreed to build 250,000 public rental housing units and 50,000 medium-sized rental housing units over the next few years. “Of course, I know there are still a lot of things to coordinate before those houses are there, and that it’s a bit of a headwind for us. But don’t let that put us off. it won’t.”

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