A crackup waiting to happen

Financial ventures like the late Silicon Valley Bank that catered to tech start-ups can collapse at a very alarming rate. Apparently, it took just 80 seconds for this California-based entity to turn from a viable concern with a lot of money into a pile of wreckage. It seems that you have not seen what. What’s more, no one knows whether it was a small accident that will soon be forgotten, or the beginning of something very serious with global implications. As we often recall, when it comes to making predictions, financial experts are as much as the Etruscan herpes, who claimed to be able to glimpse the future when they sift through the entrails of the animals they sacrificed. useful.

The same cannot be said for what is happening to Argentina’s economy. For years, to anyone with some common sense, unless something drastic is done, you’ll end up in a pile of garbage, with survivors scouring the ruins looking for something they need to stay in. It was unpleasantly obvious that I had to. live a little longer

A few days ago, the official annual inflation rate exceeded 100%. No doubt it will continue to rise. Delaying it would require a large amount of political will, so it’s a commodity in short supply in public institutions these days.

Unfortunately, Peronist regimes have always been prone to inflationary pressures. They feel obligated to pretend that Argentina is financially much richer than it really is. When Economy Minister Sergio Massa tries to match public spending with the available resources, he will be robbed not only from die-hard Kirchnerites, but also from relatively smart peronists who need government money to keep their businesses running. prize.

Massa himself must be well aware that it is government overspending made possible by the printing of staggering numbers of money that is driving inflation, but his boss Christina Fernandez de Kirchner refuses to believe it. In her view, thinking such thoughts is reactionary, typical of monetarists and other pests, and therefore unacceptable. She said the same thing when she received an honorary doctorate in Rio Negro last week. Specializing in getting jobs, she understands that she “redistributes” whatever money she can find among the poor who happen to give her the right to vote. Forcing the base, and the businessmen to do bewildering operations, should be more than enough to solve the problem.

Until Christina and those who support her every word are pushed aside, the economy continues to speed up in a journey destined to end in an almighty crash. Blame it on the villainous Mauricio Macri, who wants to delay the day and is subsequently backed by a ruthless neoliberal cabal with ties to foreign speculators and the International Monetary Fund. can. If they do this, as they imagined it was possible until February, when inflation surged even faster than before, they have a good chance of returning to power in four years. A little early.

According to many Kirchnerites, Macri and those associated with him belonged to the same political movement as the military men who ruled Argentina from March 1976 to December 1983, but they themselves were spiritual and In some cases it is biological. – the heir of Montoneros, who sought to wipe out the “oligarchs” and establish his own “progressive” dictatorship.

This means that they feel entitled to do virtually anything to oppose them, and for that matter treat the country as a battlefield where the fate of non-combatants matters little. They are certainly more likely to be wiped out in the polls than the tremendous harm they are inflicting on the millions of men, women and children who will spend the rest of their time as a result of their efforts. I’m more worried about sex or living below the poverty line.

At the beginning of the year, when those who could afford it were enjoying their summer vacations, the economy was widely thought to be disorganized until the next government was voted on and ready to take office. But then inflation accelerated, leaders of organizations supposedly representing the poor began to make increasingly aggressive demands, and a prolonged drought that devastated agriculture cost at least 20 billion It was recognized that it would take the US dollar out of the country.

All of this, combined with government infighting where the Kirchne faction is attacking the hapless President Alberto Fernandez, President Alberto Fernandez knows it’s too soon to say he’s done with it. – The current order is likely to collapse before October finally arrives.

Opposition politicians have two thoughts about what is very likely to happen in the coming weeks. Kirchnerite Implosion certainly suits them, but they could be responsible for dealing with a very precarious situation before putting their divided homes in order. They also considered the possibility that the Peronists would face the risk that if they were able to replace Alberto’s regime with a short-lived caretaker government, it could deprive them of their military might, merely restoring the illusion of stability. Must do… A clear election win Cambio Coalition thinks they should be theirs.

Of course, in order for this to succeed, the Peronists need to ensure that Christina and her supporters do not remain near the center of power. Because their proximity to the center of power had a lot to do with Argentina’s miserable international reputation. Not as sentimental as Britain’s Conservatives when it comes to chasing away potential losers. If they are convinced that two decades of Kirchnerite supremacy over their movement are coming to an end, they can count on doing whatever it takes to avoid being dragged into it.